While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Automobile retail sales in India rose 14 per cent in January on the back of robust registrations across passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and tractors, dealers' body Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations said on Monday. Total sales across categories last month rose to 18,26,669 units, as compared to 16,08,505 units in January 2022. Passenger vehicle registrations rose to 340,220 units last month, an increase of 22 per cent as compared to 279,050 units in the year-ago period.
Petrol price on Friday crossed the Rs 100- per-litre mark in Chennai as well as in some places in Punjab and Kerala after fuel prices were hiked yet again. Petrol is priced at over Rs 99 a litre in Delhi and Kolkata -- the only metro cities which haven't seen the Rs 100 mark yet. Petrol price was hiked by 35 paise per litre on Friday but there was no change in diesel rates, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers.
Petrol and diesel prices on Thursday climbed to fresh highs in the country as rates were hiked by the most in recent times, even as fuel retailers said the government can cut taxes to ease consumer burden. Petrol and diesel price was hiked by 35 paise per litre each after a gap of a week, according to price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The increase took petrol prices to a fresh high of Rs 86.65 a litre in Delhi and to Rs 93.20 in Mumbai.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
The forthcoming budget needs to delay fiscal consolidation, instead should focus more on supporting the pandemic battered-economy and boost consumption demand by offering income tax soaps and cutting fuel taxes, says a report. In a pre-budget report, India Ratings said it expects the new budget to consolidate and strengthen the plan set out in the last budget, rather than trying out new things by continue with the revenue and capital expenditure pattern of FY'22 to provide stability and consolidation to the past/ongoing efforts, and to focus on boosting demand by generating employment opportunities in areas/sectors that have been impacted more by the pandemic. The report therefore expects the finance minister to delay fiscal consolidation and make it to be a gradual and calibrated process, thus ensuring the necessary fiscal support that the economy needs is available till the recovery acquires its own momentum.
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Petrol and diesel prices were raised for the second day in a row on Wednesday as state-owned fuel retailers resumed daily rate revision after a more than two-week long hiatus during assembly elections in states like West Bengal. Petrol price was increase ford by 19 paise per litre and diesel by 21 paise a litre, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Petrol in the national capital now costs Rs 90.74 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 81.12 per litre.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
India must be prepared for a big, fat fuel import bill in FY23 - barring any further avatars of the Covid virus - as refiners crank up runs, or crude processing rates, to meet the growing demand for fuels, and crude prices soar. Capacity additions by an Indian state-run refiner will reinforce the need for foreign crude. Demand for all fuels is expected to increase by 3-8 per cent next fiscal from 2021-22, reaching pre-pandemic levels, according to analysts and industry experts.
RIL-BP currently produce gas from Dhirubhai-1 and 3 field and oil and gas from MA field, three of the over one-and-half dozen discoveries made in KG-D6 block
The company and other public sector fuel retailers Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are currently selling petrol at Rs 3.68 a litre below cost and diesel at Rs 2.90 per litre lower than cost.
Only 80.6 per cent of the Rs 6-trillion allocation has been spent by February, data from the Controller General of Accounts shows.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 46 per cent jump in net profit for the three months ended June on the back of bumper earnings from oil and telecom businesses. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit rose to Rs 17,955 crore during April-June period -- the first quarter of 2022-23 fiscal year -- from Rs 12,273 crore in the year-ago period, it said a stock exchange filing.
India's services sector activities improved further and expanded at strongest rate in over 11 years in May, supported by a substantial pick-up in new business growth, even as input cost inflation climbed to a record high, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 58.9 in May, up from 57.9 in April, amid better underlying demand and strong inflows of new work. For the tenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
'While intensification of fuel prices and broad-based domestic cost pass-through pressures is a downside risk, core inflation is expected to strengthen further as demand recovers to pre-Covid levels,' the ministry said on Friday.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent, citing sharply high energy prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 per cent.
Petrol price on Thursday was cut by 16 paise per litre and diesel by 14 paise -- the fourth minor reduction in rates in three weeks that followed six months of relentless price increases. Petrol now costs Rs 90.40 per litre in Delhi, down from Rs 90.56, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. A litre of diesel comes for Rs 80.73 per litre as against Rs 80.87 previously.
Petrol and diesel prices on Tuesday were cut for the third time within a week on the back of softening international oil prices. Petrol price was cut by 22 paise per litre and diesel by 23 paise per litre, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Petrol now costs Rs 90.56 per litre in Delhi and a litre of diesel comes for Rs 80.87. Rates have been reduced across the country and vary from state to state depending on the local incidence of taxation (VAT). In Mumbai, the petrol price was cut to Rs 96.98 a litre on Tuesday from Rs 97.19, while diesel rates were reduced to Rs 87.96 from Rs 88.20, the price notification showed.
Hyderabad on Monday became the second metro city in the country to see petrol price crossing Rs 100 per litre mark after fuel prices were raised yet again. Petrol price was hiked by 29 paise per litre and diesel by 30 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The hike -- 24th in six weeks -- pushed fuel prices across the country to new historic highs. In Delhi, petrol hit an all-time high of Rs 96.41 a litre, while diesel is now priced at Rs 87.28 per litre.
Petrol price on Tuesday was increased by 15 paise per litre and diesel by 18 paise as State-owned fuel retailers started passing on the increase in international oil prices to consumers after an 18-day hiatus.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Thursday cut for the second straight day as international oil prices cooled fell on prospects of speedy recovery in consumption getting clouded by second wave of COVID-19 cases. Petrol price was cut by 21 paise per litre and diesel by 20 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Petrol now costs Rs 90.78 per litre in Delhi and a litre of diesel comes for Rs 81.10.
Tata Motors on Monday launched the country's first CNG truck in the medium and heavy commercial (M&HCV) vehicle segment in the 28- and 19-tonne nodes. Most truck makers, including Tata Motors, currently offer CNG only in the small and light commercial vehicle segments. The company also launched a fleet of seven trucks in the intermediary and light commercial vehicle (I&LCV) segment, meant for varied applications.
CNG price in the national capital and adjoining cities on Tuesday was hiked by Rs 0.50 per kg, while an imminent increase in petrol and diesel price has been put on wait-and-watch mode for more clarity on global oil prices. CNG price in NCT of Delhi has been increased to Rs 57.51 per kg from Rs 56.51, according to the information posted on the website of Indraprastha Gas Ltd - the firm which retails CNG and piped cooking gas in the national capital. Following the firming up of international gas rates, IGL has been raising CNG rates by up to 50 paise (Rs 0.50) per kg periodically. Prices have gone up by about Rs 4 per kg this year alone.
Seeking to further democratise air travel with dependable and affordable services, airline Akasa Air is aiming to start flights in late May or early June after getting its first Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in April. Bullish on the long term growth potential of the country's civil aviation sector, ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala-backed carrier is looking to have 18 planes in its fleet by the end of March 2023. Despite COVID clouds continuing to cast a shadow on the airlines, Akasa Air CEO Vinay Dube is more than optimistic as he asserted that "if you look at the long term future of commercial aviation in India, it is as exciting as anywhere in the world".
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
India's services sector activity continued to expand in September, supported by favourable underlying demand amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, but lost some momentum from August's 18-month high level, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 56.7 in August to 55.2 in September, but remained well above its long-run average. "Despite easing from August, the rate of expansion was marked and the second-fastest since February 2020," the survey said.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the recent interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank was not surprising for her but the timing was, asserting that the rising cost of funds will not impact the government's planned infrastructure investments. For the first time since August 2018, RBI had on May 4 delivered a blunt 40 basis points increase in key repo rate to 4.40 per cent, and also hiked the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent after an unscheduled meeting of the rate setting panel, citing increased inflation pressures following the Ukraine war and the resultant spike in crude oil prices. Retail inflation printed at 6.9 per cent in March and the April reading is forecast to top 7.7 per cent.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, rose to $130.50 per barrel on Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. The international benchmark, Brent crude, hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008.
Human Development -- a measure of a nation's health, education, and average income -- has declined for two years in a row.
'While most companies were bullish before the second wave of double-digit sales growth in FY22, that may not be the case now.'
The sharp increase in commodity prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war has put automakers in a fix. After the frequent price hikes in the current fiscal, manufacturers fear that any more price increases may further dent the already weak demand in certain segments. "We have taken several hikes and cannot immediately do it again. "We will have to closely watch the situation and act accordingly," said an official at an auto firm, declining to be identified. Even for companies like Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, which has had a strong volume run and a robust order book, passing on the entire costs has been tough.
The FinMin will pay Rs 5,324 crore (Rs 53.24 billion) for Jan-March.
India's services sector activity expanded at the second-fastest pace in more than a decade during November, driven by sustained rise in new work and improvement in market conditions, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index was at 58.1 in November, fractionally down from 58.4 in October. The November figure points to the second-fastest rise in output since July 2011. For the fourth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
India's services sector activity expanded at the strongest pace in ten-and-a-half years in October, driven by a substantial upturn in business activity amid favourable demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. Companies indicated that a notable pick-up in new business led to the fastest expansion in output in over a decade and as a result more jobs were created, even though business confidence remained subdued due to growing inflationary concerns. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 55.2 in September to 58.4 in October, signalling the strongest rate of growth in ten-and-a-half years.
The economy is expected to throw up better numbers in the September quarter with GDP contraction of 9.9 per cent, as against 24 per cent in Q1 at the onset of the pandemic, says a report. The government will release the Q2 GDP numbers later this month. In the first contraction since 1980, the economy shrank a full 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the fiscal after the whole nation was put under a strict lockdown.
After Rajasthan, petrol price on Thursday crossed the Rs 100 per litre mark in Madhya Pradesh after fuel rates were increased for the tenth day in a row. Petrol price was hiked by 34 paise per litre and diesel by 32 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. While branded or additive-laced petrol, which attracts higher taxes, had crossed the Rs 100-mark in some places in states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, regular petrol crossed the physiological mark in Sriganganagar town of Rajasthan on Wednesday, and on Thursday it went past that mark in Madhya Pradesh. In Anuppur of Madhya Pradesh, petrol is priced at Rs 100.25 per litre and diesel at Rs 90.35. Fuel prices differ from state to state depending on the incidence of local taxes such as VAT and freight charges.
